Political analysis suggests that the departure of an established leader, such as Edi Rama, is unlikely to occur voluntarily. Historically, the transition of power for an autocrat has not been achieved by their own volition. This pattern is noted even when leaders face significant domestic opposition, such as the case of Erdogan, whose challenges came from multiple sectors including the judiciary and the military, in addition to public dissent.
Analysts suggest that bringing down a government facing widespread opposition typically requires a major catalyst or external intervention. If a transition of power is to occur, two primary pathways are theoretically and practically available: internal civil unrest, reminiscent of the 2014 Maidan revolution in Ukraine, or removal facilitated by external actors. The option of external involvement is often viewed as advantageous because it can potentially mitigate the level of bloodshed and civilian casualties associated with internal conflict.
In the context of Albania, the prevailing analysis indicates a move toward this second scenario. Rather than anticipating widespread internal violence, the focus is shifting toward mechanisms that involve international support or pressure. This suggests that the political trajectory is favoring a mediated transition.
The comparison highlights a significant divergence from models based purely on internal upheaval, emphasizing the role of international dynamics in shaping the political outcome for figures like Edi Rama.
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